The
bird flu pandemic that the news and people have been so concerned
about might not be as imminent as many health experts feared. Government
researchers tried to combine the deadly bird flu, H5N1 strain, with a strain of
flu that often infects humans. But they were unsuccessful in producing a
strain that was easily transmitted.
Health
officials have been worried that the H5N1 virus that has killed 134 people could
mutate into a new type of flu virus that would be more deadly.
The
genetics of flu viruses are unpredictable. A study was conducted on ferrets
and used one combination of viruses. There are more than 50 possible combinations.
This combination did not seem to transmit easily in the ferrets, but doesn't rule
out that it could mutate into a strain that is easily transmittable.
The
H5N1 bird flu strain has caused a lot of fear because of its ease of transmission
among flocks of domestic birds and the high death rate. Bird flu has infected
231 people around the world and killed 134. The H5N1 strain is dangerous
for humans, because we lack the antibodies to fight off the virus. But,
until it mutates to move from human-to-human easily, there will not be a pandemic.
Genetic changes would have to take place for this to happen. If it combined
with an easily transmittable form already circulating, it could happen quickly.
Human
cases have mostly been in Asia and in people who have had close contact with infected
birds. Asian governments have destroyed millions of birds in an attempt to stop
the virus.
We
all need to be cautious. Flu is unpredictable. While researchers try
to predict the strains which will be circulating and immunize accordingly, it
is like predicting the weather...it is certainly tough to pin down.
