Bird Flu Pandemic May Not Develop

The bird flu pandemic that the news and people have been so concerned about might not be as imminent as many health experts feared.  Government researchers tried to combine the deadly bird flu, H5N1 strain, with a strain of flu that often infects humans.  But they were unsuccessful in producing a strain that was easily transmitted.

Health officials have been worried that the H5N1 virus that has killed 134 people could mutate into a new type of flu virus that would be more deadly.

The genetics of flu viruses are unpredictable.  A study was conducted on ferrets and used one combination of viruses.  There are more than 50 possible combinations.  This combination did not seem to transmit easily in the ferrets, but doesn't rule out that it could mutate into a strain that is easily transmittable.

The H5N1 bird flu strain has caused a lot of fear because of its ease of transmission among flocks of domestic birds and the high death rate. Bird flu has infected 231 people around the world and killed 134.  The H5N1 strain is dangerous for humans, because we lack the antibodies to fight off the virus.  But, until it mutates to move from human-to-human easily, there will not be a pandemic.  Genetic changes would have to take place for this to happen.  If it combined with an easily transmittable form already circulating, it could happen quickly.

Human cases have mostly been in Asia and in people who have had close contact with infected birds. Asian governments have destroyed millions of birds in an attempt to stop the virus.

We all need to be cautious.  Flu is unpredictable.  While researchers try to predict the strains which will be circulating and immunize accordingly, it is like predicting the weather...it is certainly tough to pin down.